Goal betting strategy & computing systems

Betting base reader Tobi has specialized in goal betting for years. In the following he provides two of his strategies with which he can place successful tips.

Strategy for goal bets - over 2.5 hits

I mainly specialize in single bets on over 2.5 goals . In doing so, I primarily rely on easy-to-find statistics. In my analysis I include the last 10 games of the two teams and see how often they played “over”. Add to this how many goals the home team scored at home or the away team abroad and how many goals overall on average the respective home and away games fell last.

Another point are the H2h encounters, i.e. earlier games of the respective teams against each other. In my experience, there are teams whose clashes show a clear trend.

Criteria for influencing goal bets on the over 2.5

If at least three of the points recorded above speak for an over or under, in my experience you can allude to the respective bet, provided the odds have a certain minimum value achieved. With odds of 1.75 I do not play goal bets in particular, as the luck factor is always given due to post hits etc.

In live bets, it is also advisable to win the goal bet during the game if there is a certain degree of uncertainty comes up. If, for example, an over 2.5 was bet before the game at odds of 1.85 and two hits were scored after about 20 minutes in the live game, very high odds can sometimes be hedged.

Goal bets with calculation system

I try to win in many ways, but I would like to introduce my own goal bets calculation system that I developed myself (through tinkering).

Any example for generating value

Home team:

12 home goals: 9 home games = 1 , 33
16 goals scored away: 9 away games = 1.77
1.33 + 1.77 = 3.1
3.1: 1.80 = 1.73

[Note: I found the 1.80 as a constant for myself through practical experience, there is no theoretical basis] | || 820

In der Tabelle ist 1,73 im unteren 2-Tore-Bereich gekennzeichnet. So habe ich die wahrscheinliche Anzahl der Heimtreffer errechnet. Man kann also sagen, die Heimmannschaft schießt wahrscheinlich 1 bis 2 Tore. Zwei Treffer sind allerdings etwas wahrscheinlicher (siehe Tabelle).

Away team:

6 away goals: 9 away games = 0.66
9 home goals: 9 home games = 1.00
0.66 + 1.00 = 1.66
1.66: 1.80 = 0.93

The value is marked in the table in the lower 1-gate area. That's how I calculated the likely number of away goals. So you can say that Team 2 will probably score 0 to 1 goal. However, 1 goal is more likely (see table).

This gives the most likely results for potential goal bets

1: 0
1: 1
2: 1
2: 0

Most likely, however, is a 1: 1 or a 2: 1. This leads to the assumption or the tip that 2 or 3 goals will be scored in the entire game.

Kind regards
Tobi

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Note: NO strategy can guarantee a sure win. So always bet responsibly!